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About Overwatch Wiki Disclaimers Mobile view. Now that they are binned by the SR delta between teams, we can look at the distribution of Expected Scores from the simulations based on the bin shown below. We also see that distribution in each of the bins is approximately normal, which means that we can do things like regression and confidence intervals without too much concern of violating underlying assumptions.

We are now ready to compare the simulation data to the Elo Expected Score equation!

## Overwatch matchmaking getting worse – The Edinburgh Remakery

Using the data generated by the simulation, we can now fit the following equation to our real world Competitive Overwatch data. Equation that I will be fitting to determine steepness. In order to actually fit it based on the binned simulation data, I set Team SR Delta in the denominator to the midpoint of each bin i. We have a value of But how certain are we of this estimate?

## Overwatch's Matchmaking is unacceptable.

Therefore, we can pretty damn confidently say that the Overwatch is not using the value of used in the traditional Elo formulation, but instead is using a value closer to ! So What Does that Change? Earlier on we saw that using the standard Elo formula, a player that has a point rating advantage over an opponent would be 10 times as likely to win or have an Expected Score that is 10 times larger than their opponent.

This was a consequence of having the value of explicitly in the equation as a scaling factor.

The effect of this is a flatter, smoother curve. Also, recalling that most games occur with an SR difference between teams of less than , and that between this range the curve can be very closely approximated with a linear fit. Not so coincidentally, this is half of the rate of change using the standard Elo curve why do you think this is? Please feel free to leave any comments or feedback, and thank you for reading!

Follow me on Medium or on LinkedIn to see my future pieces! A wonderful write-up about the Elo system by Jose Leiva https: Wikipedia entry on the Elo System and Logistic function https: Ridiculously in-depth walkthrough of the Overwatch matchmaking and ranking system on the Overwatch Forums https: Matt is the founding member of RPS's youth contingent. He's played more games of Dota than you've had hot dinners. Sombra abilities and strategy tips. Ana abilities and strategy tips.

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